When an article published in Rolling Stone magazine revealed that General Stanley McChrystal had made disparaging remarks about key members of the Obama administration (including the President), the controversy threatened to jeopardize the faltering US-led mission in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, McChrystal’s disregard for the bedrock American principle of civilian control over the military was not an isolated political gaffe. Rather, it was symptomatic of his broader failure to appreciate that the Afghan conflict requires political as well as military leadership. Understanding that McChrystal’s shortcomings rendered him ill-suited to the task he had been assigned barely a year before, Obama decided to accept McChrystal’s resignation, replacing him with the immensely qualified General David Petraeus. While a necessary change, the incident may also serve as a catalyst for improving the odds of achieving victory. Petraeus brings to the job the skills necessary to manage a complex and multifaceted war which requires not just military prowess, but diplomatic and political abilities.
Petraeus, the former head of CENTCOM, is best known for leading the dramatic turnaround in Iraq that began with the implementation of the “surge” strategy in 2007. Obama’s plan for troop increases and a shift in tactics in Afghanistan, which Petraeus played a role in formulating, was developed to emulate the best elements of the surge. Indeed, the problems facing Afghanistan today resemble those that bedeviled Iraq during the most trying years of the US intervention: a corrupt and incompetent local government, hostile regional powers, a populace that distrusts the Americans, and dwindling support for the occupation at home and abroad. Petraeus dealt with each of these concerns as commander in Iraq, and he has the opportunity to replicate his success in Afghanistan in the face of seemingly overwhelming odds.
As in Iraq, America’s departure from Afghanistan is predicated on the creation of a self-sustaining state that can defend itself from challenges to its authority. For this reason, training Afghanistan’s military and police forces is of paramount importance. The US hopes to create an Afghan army of 134,000 by 2011, with the goal of eventually increasing its size to 240,000. This effort has been met with mixed results thus far. While the army has achieved its recruitment targets ahead of schedule, its performance in combat has been lackluster, as evidenced by the failure of a recent assault on the village of Bad Pakh. This debacle was no anomaly, but a byproduct of the corruption and indiscipline that plague the nascent army.
In light of these setbacks, Petraeus has sought to develop local militias modeled on the Awakening Movement that helped mobilize opposition to Al-Qaeda in Iraq. Drawing on the Afghan public’s strong sentiments against the Taliban insurgents, these groups are designed to serve as a temporary measure to alleviate violence while the professional military takes shape. Such forces can be trained at a faster pace than the regular military, and are more in touch with their communities than the national army is. US-backed militias have already proved effective at reducing violence in regions such as Wardak province, indicating that such a policy could produce favorable results elsewhere in Afghanistan.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai initially hesitated to endorse this program, viewing it as a challenge to his authority. By eventually persuading Karzai to accept the deal, Petraeus demonstrated his talents as a negotiator, an essential skill for his position. Karzai is far from an ideal partner, but the U.S. has little choice but to continue working with him, just as it had to stomach the inadequacies of the Maliki regime in Iraq when implementing the surge. There is no reason to believe that a viable alternative is possible, and undermining Karzai would likely prove counterproductive.
At the same time, Petraeus should avoid becoming too closely attached to Karzai – a mistake made by McChrystal – in order to avoid alienating opponents of the regime who will be a critical part of any peace negotiations. Petraeus will likely take a more prominent role in diplomatic affairs than McChrystal did. His diplomacy should help to compensate for the shortcomings of the two top civilian ambassadors, Karl Eikenberry and Richard Holbrooke, who have often been too caught up in bureaucratic warfare.
In addition to managing a delicate political situation within Afghanistan, Petraeus must also work on finessing an increasingly fraught regional and international environment. Regionally, he needs to improve relations with Afghanistan’s often troublesome neighbor Pakistan. Fearing that its archrival India could gain influence in Afghanistan, and wary of incurring the wrath of Islamists within its own borders, Pakistan has proved reluctant to fight the Taliban and, indeed, has occasionally even cooperated with Taliban members. Petraeus, however, is uniquely suited to bridge this divide, given his ties with Pakistani army chief Ashfaq Kayani and his keen insight into the region’s dynamics. Meanwhile, internationally, as countries like Great Britain and the Netherlands prepare to cut back or withdraw their own forces, Petraeus will need to reach out to the remaining NATO coalition members and convince them to stay the course.
Perhaps the greatest hurdle obstructing the future of America’s Afghan endeavor is public opinion. Here, the contrast between the savvy Petraeus and his blunt predecessor is striking. McChrystal betrayed a startling lapse of judgment in speaking so openly to the media. Petraeus, on the other hand, is remarkably disciplined when interacting with the press, keeping his focus on positive news of progress on the ground.
In addition, Petraeus’s record lends him enormous credibility, buying Obama time to pursue his new strategy in the face of skepticism among voters, including many in his own party. The Senate’s unanimous vote to confirm Petraeus to his new position was a ringing endorsement. With the US death toll rising, and the WikiLeaks revelations about Pakistani involvement with the Taliban reverberating, Obama needs all the help he can get. Petraeus will be of particular assistance in maintaining the backing of key Republicans, such as Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham, many of whom view him very favorably, and hope that he can talk Obama into reevaluating his July 2011 deadline to begin pulling US troops out of Afghanistan.
Of course, various factors – some outside of Petraeus’ control – could still hamper progress in Afghanistan. There remains much to be done, especially in terms of fostering economic growth and reliable security. Pulling off the mission will be difficult, but with so much at stake for the United States, it is imperative that President Obama does everything he can to ensure a successful outcome in Afghanistan. The appointment of Petraeus will go a long way toward realizing that goal.


